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Vladimir Putin is beginning a two-day trip to India, where he is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and participate in an annual high-level meeting conducted by the two states.

India and Moscow are anticipated to finalize a number of accords during the visit, which takes place months after the US escalated scrutiny on India to halt importing Russian energy.

It also comes as the US President administration conducting a series of talks with Russia and Ukraine in an bid to end the war.

India and Russia have been longtime partners for a long time, and Putin and Modi share a strong connection. Here is a analysis at why they both require each other – and what to watch for as they meet.

A Unique Bond, Economic Agreements and International Dynamics

Why are ties with India critical for the Moscow?

Firstly, examine the figures:

• A population of nearly a billion and a half.
• Economic growth over 8%. India is the world's fastest growing economic powerhouse.

That establishes it as a extremely lucrative destination for Russian commodities and raw materials – particularly petroleum.

India is the world's third biggest importer of crude oil and has been buying substantial amounts from Russia. That wasn't always the case. Prior to the Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine, a mere 2.5% of India's oil purchases were sourced from Moscow.

That percentage skyrocketed to 35% as India benefited from Russian discounted prices caused by restrictions against Moscow and Russia's limited ability to sell to the Western market.

India was pleased. Washington was not.

In October, the Trump administration imposed an extra 25% tariff on Indian exports, contending that by purchasing oil from Russia, India was helping to fund the Kremlin's coffers. Purchases from India for Russian oil have subsequently declined. President Putin will be eager for India to keep buying.

For Moscow, defence exports to India are another key focus and have been dating back to the Cold War. In the run-up to Putin's visit, there were indications that India is considering to buy cutting-edge Russian combat aircraft and air defence systems.

Russia, facing a skilled worker shortage, also views India as a key provider of trained workers.

But there's geopolitics at play, too.

The Kremlin takes pleasure in demonstrating that Western attempts to isolate it over the war in Ukraine have been unsuccessful.

Flying to India and holding talks with Prime Minister Modi is a means of making that point.

So is going to China and meeting with Xi Jinping, as Putin did a quarter ago. He conferred with Modi on the that trip. The picture of the three leaders smiling and chatting side-by-side conveyed a strong signal that, regardless of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has powerful partners who support the notion of a "world with multiple power centers".

Russia praises its "unrestricted partnership" with China.

It is just as emphatic about its "strategic and favored strategic partnership" with India.

That is a sharp contrast to Moscow's strained ties with the European Union.

"I think the Kremlin is certain that the West, encompassing Europe, completely failed," argues expert Andrei Kolesnikov.

"Russia is not alone, because we have links to Asia and the developing world. Economically, this is the coming era. In that sense Russia has re-emerged as the key player in these parts of the globe, like the Soviet Union."

This week, though, expect to hear about Moscow-Delhi ties, commercial pacts and greater commercial collaboration between Moscow and Delhi.

Challenge of Modi's Strategic Autonomy

Putin's visit to Delhi is taking place at a pivotal time for Modi and India's worldwide ambitions.

India-Russia relations date back to the USSR period and have persisted regardless of the shifting international landscape.

Putin has arguably put increased attention into this bond than other Russian leaders preceding him.

As for Modi, even after coming under intense scrutiny from US and European governments to condemn Russia over its war in Ukraine, he stated that negotiations was the sole way to end the conflict.

This was India's "sovereign decision-making" in action – with Modi occupying a specific place in the international system where he maintained close ties with Moscow while keeping his links with the West simultaneously.

That succeeded – until Trump was re-elected to the White House. India-US ties have hit an nadir in the past few months as the two countries have not managed to settle the trade impasse.

In this scenario, Putin's visit assumes more weight for Modi than ever before because it will challenge India's strategic independence. He will be navigating the diplomatic fine line here.

Modi would aim to demonstrate voters at home and in the wider world that he yet views Putin as his partner and hasn't given into demands from Trump, whom he has in the past called his "good friend".

But he has also faced scrutiny from his friends in Europe – only this week, the German, French and UK ambassadors in India wrote a unusual joint article in a major newspaper criticising Russia's approach on Ukraine.

And so, Modi will have to guarantee that the consolidation of India-Russia ties does not overshadow continuing trade talks with the US and his cooperation with Europe.

"For India, the challenge is walking a fine line – protecting sovereignty while managing pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow," said a Delhi-based research group.

Modi's other goal will be to realize the opportunities of economic exchange between India and Russia.

Observers have repeatedly said that the commercial ties between the two longtime friends has underperformed for decades.

Their total trade rose to $68.72bn at the end of March 2025, rising from {just