A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
