Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
