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Whenever the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for problems.

That is when giant white balloons are launched across the border, with containers of cheap cigarettes swinging beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this illicit balloon traffic has compelled Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the authorities are adamant they are facing something considerably more sinister than simple smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been "weaponised" in an act of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian administration has declared an state of emergency.

While balloons have been employed by smugglers in the past, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Of course it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus exploits criminal networks to have an effect on adjacent states," a senior official stated.

The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern flank.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, each evening, border units patrol in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.

Teams establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any firm that can figure out how to intercept them.

For now, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines face disruptions.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."