This rhetoric and imagery from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest visit to India spoke of a enduring bilateral partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the statesmen took a ride together, echoing a known diplomatic gesture. In his comments, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian connection as a "guiding star", founded on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th trip to India over his quarter-century rule and his twentieth encounter with Modi after the latter assumed office in 2014.
A Gap Separating Pageantry and Reality
Yet, a significant divide exists between the symbolism and the actual content of this relationship. While Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact purchasing less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two countries concluded numerous agreements in areas like mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. But, expected announcements on major defence contracts did not come to pass. India has not concluded any substantial defence purchases with Russia since the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in deliveries of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own wartime requirements.
A Partnership Losing Geopolitical Heft
This all indicates that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer holds the identical geopolitical weight it previously did. During the Cold War, India maintained preferential trade terms and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its allies. This unique alliance peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both nations have sought to preserve a semblance of this special bond through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the truth is that their engagement does not have the same significance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened relations with the Western world.
Diversification and Inherent Contradictions
New Delhi is not expected to sever its crucial links with Moscow. Yet, as Western pressure mounts on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to diversify the partnership into new sectors. On Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, aiming to make their ties "more diversified, equitable and long-lasting". This includes enhancing entry for Indian goods to rectify a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two covers several strategically important fields – from space and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Reliability
At an ideological plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among older generations of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal support during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing frictions between India and the US, in which American leaders have made sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more reliable partner.
This key difficulty, of course, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The extensive declaration released during Putin's India trip contained no mention to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically referred to the relationship as an "anchor of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the conflict have been minimal.
Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This dynamic highlights the underlying complexities in India's foreign policy. The country is set to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, following a similar pact with the UK this year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to boost cultural contacts between India and Russia.
How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that current talks will bear fruit, leading to a end of hostilities and the removal of a key thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. However, should a settlement is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian alliance will certainly continue in Western governments.
