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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.